Keigo Nakamura

Thank you for your cooperation and treatment.
In spite of difficult situation which total Japanese import decrease, we could increase the deal compare to last year (a little).
I gratitude it sincerely, and we try to work more hard to satisfy your expectation, by all our staffs.

①Southern Hemisphere bulbs
１．Import Quantity
Now bulbs are incoming to our place day by day. Last arrival and also official PQ import statistic will be seen in December.
Result of Questionnaire which was done to exporters in August (after harvest and grading) was, total sales of SH 2010 to Japan is approx 26 million which is +1.32 million (+5.3%) more than last year.
Number of Holland crop 2009 was 113 million which is – 4.26 million (-3.6%)
* less than last year, so increase of SH couldn’t fill up the less in total.

*this statistic number doesn’t increase 5 days in last week of September, but number of import in September itself is small, so difference should be less important.

２．Situation of receiving SH bulbs
Due to delay of grading etc, final shortage information was even after Obon-week (middle of August), but arrival of bulb is coming rather good.
Except some delayed grading extremely, most variety and size arrived in September and delivery also started.

Harvesting of SH bulb is June-July, so when bulbs arrive in September, dormancy is broken on theory. But by this October temperature, planting without rooting may concerned pour or uneven growth depend on area, so we ask you think of how to lower that risk.
Maybe as reflection of Holland crop 2009 decreased, our delivery of SH bulbs in September hit 54.75% up (% may fluctuated as number of last year was small). This delivery will be used planting for cut flower after end of January (=growth becomes very slow in low temperature and low sunshine), so it’s expected good tendency as a result.

３．Variety assortment and color valance of SH bulbs
Under-mentioned graph is showing color valance of Oriental and OT compare to last year. This is figure of just our company, so take it as a reference.
As you see, I notice it rather shifted to Pink from 2009 SH.

There was mood of less pink at spring time in 2010, (Maybe auction side also suggested this change?) was influence probably. Because bulb production of new variety increased, quantity seems spread to many varieties (except Sorbonne) in detail.
On the other hand, White decreased a lot from last year.
In addition to bulb production of Casa Blanca decreased very much, Siberia also decreased some.
From January to May 2010, flower price kept stable, and no mood of too much flower supply, so white would be not enough in feeling.
(This information is informed to many Auctions too)

②Holland crop 2010

１． Climate of Holland
Some people expect “power of bulb this year will be less!?”
Opinion of people in each position would be various though, here we check the acutual whether data and look back the climate of Holland so far.

Apr-May	：Due to low temperature and late frost, planting and early growth delayed.
June-July	：Good weather. Both temperature and sunshine are above average. lily growth recovered the delay.
August	：Many rain. Specially, end of August was heavy rain, then, temperature went down.
September	：Rain continue, and sunshine is average. Some bulb field got flood in big rain (but this is somewhat reactive talk, and damage is limited). Temperature is little lower, and continual rain influenced botlytis spread (botlytis is recognized as dying), so late enlargement as last year is not expected.

This is what I see about.

Under-mentioned graph is sunshine of April-September and July-September.

As you see, data is rather different from people talk about. Sun Shine is not bad.（2010 is above 07, 08, and normal year）

２．Bulb enlargement
It seems not good. It is not depend on region, but more related to planting time, field condition, grower (growing method), planting density etc, and opinion is also various.

Now is little early to make judge, opinions are still in speculation, or it is just reflecting market situation, not on weather situation.

Bulbs can grow another 1 size approximately in Sep-Oct, so weather since now has influence.

We go business trip to Holland in November, check more precisely and make report for you including analyze of power of bulbs.
We do best to inform you more reliable advise.
November this year might be typical Dutch weather, like cold windy misty rain, which I haven’t seen last years. (I don’t like cold, but good for bulbs probably…）

３．Market situation of Holland crop 2010

Many variety is getting sold out in Both Oriental / OT and LA / Asiatic.
World widely demand is recovering and price went up a lot. We see sales pattern more which price go up first and soon after becomes sold out.

Our stock is also limited, so please make final planning and arrangement.

Be careful for LA / Asiatic specially
Since last summer, we have gotten many inquiries from many customers, but stock was totally insufficient including SH bulbs. Sorry for that.

Many variety of crop 2010 is coming to sold out (Trinity, Serrada, Pavia, Orange Tycoon, Menorca, Couplet, Algarve, Vermeer, Brunello etc).
NZ crop 2011 will increase (mainly Trinity and Couplet), but we expect Chile will decrease.
Flower production of LA / Asiatic have continued decreasing (specially west part of Japan), so now demand and production is well valanced, also price is stable (we see“not bad price” which I haven’t heard in few years).
There is 2 way of strategy, we think as follows.
One is to concentrate in few variety and continue same number of scheduled production.　Or, if you cut many quantities in certain day, better to increase number of variety, and make quantity of each item small.

LA/Asiatic in our testing greenhouse which was planted in summer will show formation soon. This is growing in hot temperature, so volume of plant, height is less, and sometime top-flowering, less buds count from spring test, weak leaf etc, are seen as a granted. But that’s why it can be good reference to choose variety and compare.
There is also LA/Asiatic by SH bulb, planted on same day.
Total 176 varieties, good time to see is from middle of October.