Keigo Nakamura Mariko Wada

　Thank you for your usual cooperation.
　We have visited Holland from Nov 9th to 17th and checked situation of bulb, field condition, bulb growers, and exporters etc.

１．Dutch climate and bulb condition.

　Referring “2008 climate graph of Holland”
①Planting of this year’s spring was 2 weeks later due to late frost in end of March to beginning of April.
②Temperature went up rapidly after May, and weak roots growth was concerned, but it’s not sure.
③Climate in Summer was same as last year which is average temperature and sunshine (it’s said as cool in recent global warming), and less power content of bulb was concerned. (Crop 07 was generally less buds counts)
④Temperature went down since end of September with light frost, and bulb growth slow down.
⑤Lowest temperature in the end of October were below 0 degree for few days.
Until September, by above mentioned factor ① to ③, people expected that enlargement of 2008 crop become average to little less, and power content of bulb will be similar to 2007 which is less power than normal.

○Our company visit main bulb production areas, and checks many fields, dig out sample bulbs per variety, and check bulb condition and sprout development. Especially for sprout development, we visited Holland at same time of year for last 5 years, and measure the sprout, describe it in number then we can evaluate properly, not by feeling or impression.

●　Bulb enlargement is so so.

According to result of our sample digging,
Enlargement of crop 2008 looks average and less big size as people say.
Enlargement of crop 2007 was good crop as a result, which was approx 0.3- 0.5cm better growth than this year (by our research), and we think bulbs didn’t have power as it looks.
At a planting of 2008, bigger planting material of variety, which is not necessary to grow big, was planted in dense to control enlargement.
That’s why small planting material planted in wide grows well,
Big planting material planted in dense grows small.
So, big size bulbs result less.
Bulbs which is controlled enlargement by high density is firm, heavy and looks more power contents than it looks.

●　Wide steady sprout
By our research, sprout development of crop 2008 compare to crop 2007 is, that length is same level and more wide as under-mentioned. Width is similar to crop 2006, which was good buds counts. Number of inside scale and leaf is less, maybe because of delay of planting or temperature in autumn went down earlier.

	Outer scale	Inner scale	Length of sprout	Width of Leaf	Number of Leaf	Lenfth of stem	Width of stem
08/07	106.6%	96.8%	101.7%	104.0%	92.4%	101.2%	107.9%

Controlled enlargement + wide sprout = power contents of bulb should be normal to some better, and buds counts will be more than crop 07, our company think.
Although this is little different expectation from people talk, we are looking forward to result next year.
(Sprout condition of NZ crop 08 was somewhat similar tendency and seems good bud counts. Reference” Report of trip to SH – New Zealand②” on our web – site.)

We put pictures we took in the fields at our web- site. Hope your access !

２． Market situation and bulb grower
Sales of NL crop 2008 is unusually slow, due to world wide financial crisis and low flower price make people feel uncertainness and delay order for bulbs.
Asiatic : Main varieties are becoming sold out, because acreage decreased.
LA : Many varieties are unsold, may abandoned harvesting and thrown out.
Oriental : Acreage was decreased, but bulb price has been at low level, which may under growing cost, continue till now. Same as LA variety, some varieties and fields will not become product.

○Heavy situation of bulb growers
We have visited growers and could hear their difficulties as follow.
①When one size of the variety was sold and other was not, grower can’t harvest only one size, so have to harvest that field all. Because each process as harvesting, grading etc cost money, so if two third was not sold, they may stop harvesting. Then unsold remaining variety as in LA variety can suddenly disappear and sold out.

②Grower point high risk of quick change of demand. For example, Golden tycoon and Manissa had demand till this year, but from crop 08 that demand switch to Pavia and Conca D’or suddenly. This is problem, which they can’t avoid by something like adjustment. Especially production for new variety, when grower got sellable size after 3 years growing, sometime already demand is not there.

③By influence of world wide financial crisis, business situation of bank itself became difficult, so rule for financing became much strict, and bulb growers will be difficult to prepare budget to grow bulbs. Exporter say, growers who is financially bad, can’t get enough finance, then acreage of 2009 may decrease dramatically (approx 30% ?).

○Trade of bulb in Japan
・Import figure of NL crop 07 was approx 132 million, which is minus 7.2% from crop 06.
(Plant protection station – plant inspection statistic, Nov 26)
・Import quantity of SH crop 08 will be approx 25 million which is little decrease from 07.If LA variety increased about 2 million in it, means Oriental decreased about 8%. This is one of source, which bulb and flower auction relative people expect quantity in next January to march will decrease 10-30%.
・Sales of NL crop 2008 so far are even slower than decreased last year, and expected decrease again. (131 million/ 07 → 115-120 million/ 08)

○Stock condition of Exporters
Bulb growers don’t have enough storage for bulb, so unsold bulbs have to be destroyed. On the other hand, if bulbs was not disinfected or packed soon after harvesting should loose quality and we can’t use it. But exporters also can’t expect how demand will come later, so stock of them is less than usual years.

 

Acapulco	Acapulco	Yelloween	Yelloween
Yelloween	Willeke Alberti	Casa Blanca	Casa Blanca
Casa Blanca(4ha)	Crystal Blanca	Crystal Blanca	Conca D’or
Conca D’or	Santander	Siberia	Siberia
Siberia	Justina	Justina	Simplon
Simplon	Simplon	Sorbonne	Sorbonne
Sorbonne 2	Sorbonne 3	Sorbbone	Field of number variety
Nova Zembla	Manissa	Manissa	Marco Polo
Medusa	Medusa	Montezuma	Montezuma
Montezuma	Universe	Rialto	Rialto
Robina	Robina	Hrvesting